Yesterday, the price of organic silicon rose sharply by nearly 6%. Some mainstream new orders rose to 27,000 yuan/ton, which has reached a new high in recent years. Since the end of July, the cumulative price of organic silicon has exceeded 40%. In this regard, analysts pointed out that the price increase was mainly due to the decline in the domestic organic silicon production enterprises, and the domestic market supply reduction was obvious. The prices of raw materials, methyl chloride and metal silicon continued to rise, and the cost gradually increased. The market price of organic silicon in the late Jinjinyin 10 is expected to continue to rise. In this context, related concept stocks are also expected to be repetitive and deserve special attention.


The rise in the price of silicone has formed positive effects on related listed companies and has increased the performance of related listed companies. According to the disclosure of the China Daily, the net profit of the four companies, including Xin'an (600596, shares), Xingfa Group (600141, shares), Sanyou Chemical (600409, shares), Luxi Chemical (000830, shares), etc. . According to the disclosure of Xinan's 2017 Interim Report, during the reporting period, under the impetus of strict environmental protection supervision and supply-side structural reform, the company's two main products, glyphosate and silicone industry, began to rebound and profitable. The ability has been enhanced. Among them, the gross profit margin of silicone products sales was 24.2%, which was 10.6 percentage points higher than the same period last year, and the gross profit increased by 224 million yuan. With the continued recovery of the silicone and glyphosate industries, the company's performance is expected to achieve significant growth in 2017.


In addition, Luxi Chemical has disclosed the results of the three quarterly results, and is expected to achieve the performance pre-happiness. Specifically, the company expects net profit for the January-September 2017 period to be 750 million yuan to 8.5 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 317.87%-373.59% (previous year's net profit was 179.48 million yuan). The company explained the reason for the pre-increased performance: affected by the market supply and demand, the chemical product market rebounded and the product profitability increased. The smart chemical park has been continuously improved. The coal gasification (000968, stock bar) device has played the core technical function, the equipment manufacturing capability has been continuously improved, and the project construction has been carried out according to the progress node. The industrial chain has been continuously extended, and the newly added production capacity has been gradually released, forming a continuous investment and continuous The maturity development model of output, the company as a whole enters a virtuous cycle of rising channels.


In the secondary market, organic silicon concept stocks have been eye-catching since August. Among the four tradable stocks, the stock prices have all risen during the period. Among them, the total increase during the period of Xingfa Group reached 27.72%. Xin'an The shares followed closely, and the cumulative increase during the period also reached 22.23%. The cumulative increase during the period of Sanyou Chemical (3.87%) and Luxi Chemical (3.19%) was also significant.


It is worth noting that although the overall price of organic silicon has risen sharply in the near future, most institutions still believe that the price increase of organic silicon is expected to continue. Among them, China Merchants Securities (600999, shares it) said that the price of silicone intermediates in the medium and long term bullish, support prices continue to rise for three main reasons: 1. Industry supply and demand will maintain a tight balance in the future for a long period of time. China's current industry statistical capacity is 3 million tons, but the effective capacity is only 2.3 million tons, the operating rate is 70%, the demand is about 1.7 million tons, and supply and demand are currently in a tight balance. The newly added capacity in the future is extremely limited because of the pressure on environmental protection and the increase in the industry's entry barriers (restricting the production of new units of 100,000 tons/year); demand continues to grow steadily, and 65% of silicone monomers are used to produce silicone rubber, downstream. Mainly in the construction and automotive industries; 22% for the production of silane coupling agents, downstream mainly for the construction and electronics industries, and the expected annual growth rate of the organic silicon market in the future is 4%-5%.


2. The price of raw materials has risen sharply, which constitutes a strong support for prices. The main raw materials for silicone intermediates are methanol and metal silicon. Since July, due to environmental reasons, the average operating rate of silicon powder enterprises has declined, the price of metal silicon has increased by nearly 25% to 15,000 yuan/ton; the price of methanol has increased by 25% to 2,900 yuan/ton, and the prices of metal silicon and methanol are expected to remain high. The trend is to support the price of silicone intermediates.


3. The strictness of environmental protection inspectors will become normal, and backward production capacity is expected to accelerate. More than 30% of the production capacity of organic silicon is concentrated in Zhejiang and Shandong provinces. With the fourth batch of environmental protection inspection teams in August, eight provinces including Zhejiang, Shandong and Sichuan, the overall operating rate of the industry has declined and the effective supply has decreased. The third quarter is also the peak season for downstream demand, and supply and demand mismatches are expected to support continued price increases.


In terms of investment strategy, four concept stocks including Luxi Chemical, Xin'an, Sanyou Chemical and Xingfa Group were “buy” or “overweight” in six or more institutions in the past month. Optimistic about the rating, investment opportunities are highly optimistic.